Lone Star Migration: The moveBuddha 2021-2022 Texas Migration Report | moveBuddha (2023)

3. Texas-Size Growth: Fastest Growing Texas Metros, Cities, and Towns

So far we’ve looked at the Texas cities that are experiencing the most recent and relative growth across the state according to moveBuddha data.

To get a more comprehensive picture, we expanded our analysis to uncover the Texas cities that saw the most growth from 2010 to 2020 (using Census data). We divided the cities into five categories grouped by population size:

• Metropolitan cities: 250K+
• Large cities: 100-250K
• Mid-size cities: 50K-100K
• Small cities: 10K-50K
• Towns: Less than 10K

Here we've mapped all the fastest growth in the state from 2010 to 2020:

Fast growth often includes skyrocketing home prices. So we've also included details about typical home values (using Zillow's Home Value Index — ZHVI) to understand how prices have fluctuated over time and details about the local median household income to see which cities offer homebuyers a better bargain.

Examining population data from 2010, 2020, and Zillow home values across this period to as recent as March 2022, we found a few trends:

1. 1. Excluding metros, Dallas cities dominate this past decade's fast growth with 16 cities popping up. These DFW-area cities offer homes that are on average valued at $501K, from high-value Prosper's homes at $774K to the little town of Josephine's more affordable $303K.
   2. Central Texas: 13 of the fastest growing are scattered in the Texas Triangle. Those around Austin specifically experienced the highest increases in home values from 2020 to March 2022, an average of 72% across 10 cities. That equates to Austin-area homes that cost on average about $240K more in 2022 than they did in 2020 at an average value of $533K.
   3. Comparatively, Houston and San Antonio offer much more affordable area homes. The lowest value homes are located primarily in the west and southern parts of the state, El Paso ($188K), Laredo ($190K), and Odessa ($197K).

Metropolitan cities: Modest growth yet surprisingly affordable homes

According to Census data, here is how the population growth has been distributed across Texas’ largest metropolitan areas (250K+) from 2010 to 2020.

Of the metropolitan cities, Fort Worth (25%), Austin (24%), and San Antonio (18%) saw the most growth from 2010 to 2020. Typical area homes across all metropolitan areas over this period saw an average 57% jump in home prices, with an additional average increase of 37% over the last two years.

Can we still call Austin affordable? Defying the average mentioned above, in the Capitol city home values leaped, +81% from 2010 to 2020! The city has seen a rapid rise in population - an average of 180 new residents moved into Austin every day in 2020. Many of the newcomers are following a surge in startup and venture endeavors settling in Austin. According to PitchBook, VC investors in 2021 funneled 5.5 billion to Austin-based startups. So it may be less surprising that average Austin homes have gone from $238K in 2010 to $431K in 2020 and the latest March 2022 price is $702K!

Fast-growing Fort Worth homes are priced around $311K, while Dallas is $326K and Plano climbs up even higher for typical homes at $516K.

Large cities: Urban spill feeding large-city growth

As a whole, large Texas cities (100-250K population size) experienced on average nearly twice the population growth rates (31% average growth across all 10 cities) from 2010 to 2020 as the metropolitan areas (14% average growth across all 9 metros).

Goin' to the big D's suburbs: 4 Dallas suburbs lead large-city growth. Of the fastest-growing large cities, those experiencing the most growth are primarily situated around the DFW metropolitan area, including Frisco, McKinney, Denton, and Carrollton. In fact, Dallas suburb Frisco’s population saw a 79% increase between 2010 and 2020.

Mid-size cities: Big city access without the big prices

Mid-size cities, with populations of 50,000 to 100,000 can offer the best of both city living and an escape from metropolitan chaos. These are the mid-size Texas cities that saw the most growth in the last decade.

Perfectly positioned New Braunfels: Topping the mid-size city list with a 66% rise in population is a fast-growing German immigrant settled city right at the heart of the Austin-San Antonio Corridor. Likely contributing to the growth, New Braunfels boasts a strong job market, with employment projected to rise 17% by 2025. While the median income here is higher than the national and state average, housing costs are on the rise.

Conroe, Houston-area's best-kept secret? Nature abounds in this lakeside city located about 40 miles north of Houston. It's the second-fastest growing city in this category, having grown 47% from 2010 to 2020. Conroe also offers relatively affordable housing, with a typical area home running around $317K. With a median income of $85,348 (well above both the national and state median) the low ratio of income to home price means that you’ll have more buying power.

Unexpected boomtowns, College Station and Odessa: Far from any major metropolitan areas these two cities saw growth rates that landed them in the top 10.

Odessa is strategically positioned in the Permian Basin, an area rich in petroleum and natural gas. Recent, large production of gas and oil in the region has boosted the economy and attracted workers from across the country.

While College Station, aptly named thanks to long-time residing Texas A&M, is right at the center of the Texas Triangle, which contains 5 of the largest cities in the state. It's much more than just a college town, with Forbes ranking College Station number two in its Best Small Places for Business and Careers in 2019.

Small cities: Explosive growth

Moving down in population size but up in growth and affordability, we come to Texas’ small cities, which started 2010 with populations between 10,000 and 50,000.

Not so small anymore: Leander, Little Elm, Kyle, Georgetown, Farmers Branch: Five of the ten small cities we looked at actually grew past the 50K threshold, with the largest, Georgetown, coming in at a population of 85,538 in 2020.

Skyrocketing home prices in Williamson County, no slowdown in sight.The fastest-growing small city from 2010 to 2020 is located in the county, the once-rural #1 Leander. Back in 2010 home prices in Leander were about $198K. From that price, 2020 saw a 55% jump while today's typical homes are a +178% jump from 2010 prices, up to $550K (March 2022).Hutto and Georgetown, also located in Williamson, have seen price increases on par with those in Leander.

Compared to Austin's Travis County, the real estate market is still more affordable in Williamson County despite a 42% increase cost in homes over the past year. That said, there's no slow down in sight. For instance, a new Samsung semiconductor fabrication facility in Taylor is estimated to bring around 2,000 jobs to the county by the time it’s operational in 2024. (Surrounding small towns like Thrall, Thorndale, Granger, Circleville, and Coupland could potentially see massive growth in the years to come.)

DFW's fast-growing small towns, Little Elm and Forney: Second-fastest growing small town is Little Elm, a lakeside suburban city north of Dallas. The "Antique Capital of Texas," Forney, comes in at 3rd and is located just east of DFW.

Towns: Tiny but mighty popular

Towns that started out in 2010 with small communities of less than 10K have collectively experienced the most growth.

Populations in these tiny towns shot up between 170% to 1,368%from 2010 to 2020.

This category is also exceptional in that it is the only one in which every town has a median income above the national and state median – five boast incomes over $100K. But in almost every case, high incomes haven’t been enough to offset the huge home price increases.

Josephine won't break your pocketbook. Along with remarkable population growth, the home prices are the most affordable of all these tiny towns at $303K as of March 2022 according to Zillow, pair that knowledge with the fact that area median incomes are around $101,560. Plus, it’s just 40 miles from Dallas with a nearly direct route via I-30 West.

The Texas of the future

Nearly all of the explosive growth that the state has experienced over the last decade has taken place in metro areas, which grew 18% compared to less than 1% in rural areas.

New residents will find that many of the smaller cities and towns just outside of the large metro areas provide access to everything the big cities have to offer at a more affordable cost of living.

For those looking to make Texas their new home, the state has a lot to offer. Economically and culturally strong urban centers. A growing and diverse population. Low taxes and a business-friendly environment. And yes, even wide open spaces for those looking to get away from it all.

Planning a move to Texas

If you've got a TX move on the horizon, these pages will help you:

• Best Texas Movers Pretty straight forward, we looked at hundreds of movers across the state and these are the best ones in Texas.
• Find your Texas moving route Want detailed help for your move? Pick where you're moving to and from in Texas, and we'll help you find out costs and movers

Sources and Methodology

This report primarily uses a combination of U.S. Census Bureau data and moveBuddha proprietary data. For understanding the cost of area homes we use Zillow's Home Value Index and for rent data we referred to RentData.org.

moveBuddha proprietary data:

• 2022 State-to-State: We looked at queries for moves from all states outside of Texas looking to move to Texas. Queries for this analysis were collected at moveBuddha.com from January 1 to July 5, 2022.
• 2022 most popular cities in Texas to move to, in-to-out raio: We compared inflow and outflow of cities across Texas by dividing the number of queries for moves into the city by the number of queries for moves out. This gave us an in-to-out ratio for each city. Cities with ratios higher than 1 saw higher inflow, and ratios falling below 1 saw higher outflow. Queries for this analysis were collected at moveBuddha.com from January 1 to July 5, 2022. For city-level analysis, we only included cities with a minimum of 25 inbound queries and 25 outbound queries.
• 2021 "Surge Cities" in Texas: Using the in-to-out ratio for Texas cities collected in 2020 and 2021, we compared the change in ratio from year to year to understand which cities were experiencing significantly higher (or lower) inflow in 2021 than in 2020. More information about our 2020 to 2021 move data can be found in our end of the year Migration Report.

U.S. Census Bureau — population, median income, historical population data:

Historical population totals, April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2020. To understand the methodology for devising these population estimates, please refer to the official methodology for total resident population estimates.

To understand the cost of rent for each city, we've included RentData.org's Fair Market Rent data for 2021. It's important to note that this is the 40th-percentile of rent prices, so will reflect prices slightly below average.